PREMIUM SIMULATOR

Crisis Stress-Testing War Room & Scenario Lab

Dual-engine risk workbench: Stress-test your specific portfolio against the 4 most severe historical financial crashes (2008 GFC, 2000 Dot-Com, 2020 COVID, 2022 Rate Shock), or simulate 1,000 stochastic Monte Carlo probability paths.

Portfolio Parameters

Quick Allocation Presets:
($6,000 / year ongoing pre-authorized contributions)
100% Local Simulation

Portfolio balances and simulation calculations remain strictly in your browser and are never transmitted to a server.

2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

Oct 2007 – Mar 2009 · Full Recovery: Nov 2012

The collapse of Lehman Brothers and toxic mortgage debt froze global lending. Equities plunged 57%, while government bonds surged (+16.8%) in a historic flight to safety. Systematic rebalancing at the 2009 trough generated generational compounding.

Portfolio at Trough
$57,920

Peak value: $100,000

Maximum Dollar Drop
-$42,080

-42.1% max drawdown

Fixed Income Armor
+$14,720

Saved vs. 100% all-equity

Breakeven Horizon
2.5 Years

Accelerated with $500/mo PAC

Peak-to-Trough Drawdown & Recovery Trajectory

Normalized portfolio valuation path from market peak (100%) through crash bottom and recovery
━ Your Portfolio ┈┈ 100% Equity ╌╌ 60/40 Balanced

Asset Allocation Resilience Matrix

Compare how standard Couch Potato / Boglehead asset allocations performed in this exact historical crisis.

Strategy Stock / Bond Value at Trough Max Drawdown Trough Time Recovery (PAC)
ACTIONABLE PROTOCOLS

Your Crisis Resilience Playbook

Evidence-based rules to protect wealth during market panic
⚖️ Launch Rebalancing Drift Monitor →

Understanding Sequence of Returns

Why average returns can be deceptive

Two investors can have the exact same 7.0% average compound return over 25 years, but end up with vastly different wealth depending on when market crashes occurred.

LESSON 01

Early-Stage Crashes Are a Gift

During the accumulation phase when you are regularly adding new savings, market downturns allow your monthly contributions to purchase more ETF units at deep discounts.

Review Risk Module →
LESSON 02

Retirement Sequence Risk

During decumulation, a severe crash in your first 3 years of retirement forces you to sell assets at a loss to fund living expenses, permanently impairing portfolio longevity.

Test Withdrawal Planner →
LESSON 03

The Role of Cash Buffers

Holding 1 to 2 years of living expenses in cash or cash-like ETFs (CASH.TO, SGOV) insulates you from having to sell equities during sharp cyclical downturns.

Review Psychology →
Educational illustration using deterministic historical market drawdown series and stochastic Box-Muller Gaussian simulations based on long-term historical asset class parameters. Past market crash recoveries do not guarantee future investment performance.